Taipei,Oct.17,2012(CENS)--Global Insight recently revised its forecast of the global economic growth rate by 0.3 of a percentage point to 2.3%.Observers noted that the move may prompt the Directorate General of Budget,Accounting,and Statistics(DGBAS)to revise downward,for the ninth time,Taiwan's GDP growth rate to less than 1.5%.
GI's forecast of the global economic growth rate has been a major reference of the DGBAS in estimating Taiwan's GDP,since the DGBAS uses it as the basis for calculating the global demand for Taiwan-made products.As a result,whenever GI slashes its forecast of the global GDP and the GDP of Taiwan's major trade partners,the DGBAS would likely revise downward its forecast of Taiwan's economic growth rate.
An official of the Council for Economic Planning and Development(CEPD)pointed out yesterday(Oct.16)that after revising downward its forecast of the global economic growth from 2.7%to 2.6%in July,GI further cut its forecast of the global economic growth to 2.3 in mid-October,underscoring its conservative outlook of the global economic development,at a time when the European debt crisis remains unresolved.
In its latest report,GI cut its forecast of the GDP growth rates of the U.S.and Japan by 0.1 of a percentage point to 2.1%and 2.3%,respectively.Its forecast of the GDP growth rate in the euro region remains at-0.5%.For the four Asian little dragons,it cut the forecast of Singapore's growth rate by 0.2 of a percentage point to 2%and maintained its original forecast for the GDP growth of the other three economies,including 1.5%for Taiwan,the lowest among the four economies.
Chou Yu-tien,a research fellow at the Institute of Economics,Academia Sinica,remarked that the DGBAS is very likely to revise downward Taiwan's GDP growth this year at the end of this month,as performances of the three major economies of Europe,the U.S.and China remain sluggish.He predicted that Taiwan's GDP growth may range from 1%to 1.5%this year.
Meanwhile,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)revised downward last week its forecast of the global GDP growth this year to 3.3%,down from the forecast of 3.5%made in April,and slashed its forecast of Taiwan's GDP growth from April's 3.6%to 1.3%,lower than 2.7%for South Korea,2.1%for Singapore,and 1.8%for Hong Kong.Hung Jui-bin,director of the department of economic research,the CEPD,expressed surprise yesterday over the adjustment,saying that with the alleviation of the European-debt crisis and the inauguration of the European stabilization mechanism(ESM),the European-debt problem should stabilize and the forecast of 1.52%GDP growth of Taiwan,made by Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research,is reasonable.
He stressed that the"economic power-up plan"of the Executive Yuan can make only little contribution to Taiwan's GDP growth in the fourth quarter but its effect will gradually show up next year,especially in the fields of tourism and investments by overseas Taiwanese businesses.